Every Chartria analysis that proposes a trade is scored automatically against real price data after the fact. The numbers below come from those scored calls. They are shown even when they are poor, and any number that cannot be trusted yet is shown as a dash.
0
Calls scored
–
Win rate
–
Average result
–
"70% confidence" hit rate
Does confidence mean anything?
| Confidence | Calls | Target 1 hit rate | Average result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-49 | 0 | – | – |
| 50-59 | 0 | – | – |
| 60-69 | 0 | – | – |
| 70-79 | 0 | – | – |
| 80-100 | 0 | – | – |
How a call is scored
- Entry. The call counts only once price actually trades at the suggested entry. If it never does within three hours, it is recorded as “never entered” and is not scored.
- Stop or target. After entry, we check which comes first on real five-minute candles: the stop loss or the first target. A stop that is gapped through can lose more than 1R.
- Ambiguous candles. If a single candle touches both the stop and the target, the order of events is unknowable, so the call is marked ambiguous and excluded rather than guessed.
- Time limit. A trade still open after 24 hours is closed at the market price and scored at that result.
- Costs. Every result includes the spread at the time of the call.
What the numbers mean
R is the result measured in multiples of the amount risked: +2R is a gain of twice the risk, -1R is a full stop-out. The win rate is the share of scored calls that finished in profit. Average result is the mean R per scored call, which matters more than the win rate because a low win rate can still be profitable if wins are larger than losses.
The confidence table checks whether the confidence number means anything. If calls labelled 70-79% confidence do not reach their first target roughly 70 to 79% of the time, that confidence number is not trustworthy, and the table will show it.
Why you may see dashes
With only a handful of calls, any percentage is mostly luck. We do not show a win rate or an average result until at least 10 calls are scored, and we flag results as a low sample until there are 30. As the number of scored calls grows, the figures become more meaningful.
Educational information only, not financial advice. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss.